研究作者、「格蘭瑟氣候變遷與環境研究中心」（The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment）教授康威（Declan Conway）說，「一場大旱可能會同時侵襲許多國家，那些依賴區域供電、自身沒有水力發電廠的國家也不例外，像南非。」
亞當·明特是一名美國記者，著有《廢物星球：穿行在價值數十億美元的垃圾貿易中》（Junkyard Planet: Travels in the Billion-Dollar Trash Trade）一書。他曾在中國工作10多年，為彭博報導中國的回收業，後來前往馬來西亞。他認為，中國拒絕的不是無用的垃圾，而是本該供應給支撐該國經濟的回收和製造部門的有價值的廢料。
礙於投資回本速度太慢，企業界通常不把「節能」擺第一。可是，德國有超過160家企業組成「企業能源效率推動協會」（German Business Initiative for Energy Efficiency, DENEFF），要求政府制訂更明確、進步的節能法規。「如果不給明確的政策，反而為企業增添不確定風險。一旦政策明確，能源效率市場就會穩定成長！」DENEFF建築節能負責人艾勒曼（Henning Ellermann）篤定地說。
KfW三個字代表Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau（德國復興信貸銀行），KfW70是KfW Efficiency House 70的簡稱，名稱以聯邦政府的「節能條例」（Energy Savings Ordinance, EnEV）為準，KfW 70代表房屋耗能低於法定規範的70％，數字越小，節能程度越高，KfW給的補助或貸款額度也更高。
"Plastic or planet?" This question reminds me of another one: "Money or Life?
I used to be apprehensive about the idea that our blue planet was transforming into more of a plastic globe, but the statistic that global plastic use is expected to exceed 11 billion tons by 2050 has caused me to reevaluate.
Global plastic consumption expected to exceed 1.1 billion tons by 2050. Photo source: Chu Hon Keung (朱漢強)
Global plastic product supply far exceeds the planet’s actual demands. For example, the United State's plastic production capacity is already higher than the national demand. Uncle Sam is still planning to invest USD 164 billion into beginning new plastic production projects or expanding existing ones. How much longer can we continue producing plastic at this rate before we are forced to choose between it and our planet?
While supply exceeding demand can partly be attributed to the fossil fuel industry and its role in suppressing the cost of plastic production, the relationship between the two are not as direct as one may think.
In fact, leaders in the plastic industry are harboring a hypothetical vision for the future, where millennials in developing countries play a crucial role in catalyzing plastic demand. To be successful, these leaders will need to successfully position plastics as "convenient and easy”, and make single-use cutlery, packaging, diapers, and other “short-lived plastics” a part of daily life. After all, in order to keep profits high, plastic manufacturers must seize any opportunity to expand demand for short-lived plastics. This is not a new market strategy, but a well-worn method in developed regions. A surge in demand for short-lived plastics in developed markets is quite apparent. PET bottles and plastic bags account for 34% of plastic products in the United States and 40% in Europe—a poignant statistic illustrating how effectively created demand can take hold.
The number of plastic varieties are in the thousands, but we only need to hone in on two main types—polyethylene and ethylene—to get a solid understanding of the how the plastic industry works. Together, these two chemical compounds represent a staggering 85% of total global plastic use. Propylene (PP) alone represents 23%, while plastics in the ethylene family (PE, PVC, PS, PET, etc.) together represent 62%. The following table of products sheds some light on why the world is overflowing with short-lived plastics.
The net profit breakdown at ExxonMobil—the largest company in the oil industry—makes it clear that plastic is not simply the by-product of fossil fuels, but has grown into a massive industry of its own.
Source: The Production of Plastic and Petrochemical Feedstocks, Center for International Environmental Law, 2017
The chemical segment of ExxonMobil's business uses petroleum products to manufacture organic materials and plastics (i.e. propylene, ethylene), generating 10.8% of ExxonMobil’s annual revenue in 2015—or 27.4% of total profit across the conglomerate. These statistics become even more mind-boggling in 2016, when profits from the chemical segment surpassed 4.6 billion dollars—nearly 20 times more than the 200 million dollars in profits earned from oil drilling. Plastics will continue to shower the petrochemical giants with easy profits—as long as they can keep demand up.
What's more, the industry has become so consolidated that petrochemical companies have hoarded all the profit potential from chemical engineering for themselves. In addition to ExxonMobil, Shell (the world’s second largest petroleum company), Chevron Phillips, Total, and Sinopec all hold major stakes in chemical engineering. As future prospects for the plastic industry become brighter, chemical engineering companies are beginning to surpass petrol companies. Many chemical engineering companies are starting to buy from, or have a holding in, upstream oil refineries. For example, DowDuPont, the chemical engineering giant, has become the world’s largest manufacturer of ethylene. The world’s second largest plastic manufacturer, Lyondell Bassell, has its own oil refinery on the U.S. Gulf Coast.
The Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL) released a report in September of last year called Fueling Plastics, harshly criticizing the oil refining and chemical industries for working together behind the scenes and causing the global plastic disaster. According to the CIEL, the aforementioned companies already knew that improperly disposed plastic poses a serious threat to marine ecology. Despite this, they refused to take responsibility for reducing plastics. Indeed, the American Chemical Council, a business interest group including representatives from ExxonMobil, DowDuPont, and others, has repeatedly opposed regulations to limit the use of plastic shopping bags.
According to the Fueling Plastics report, after fracking technology enabled US companies to exploit the natural gas inside of shale rock, the price of natural gas condensation—a material used in plastic production—dropped by two-thirds. Related industries called the news a “once in a lifetime opportunity” for the world of plastics.
China is not lagging behind in this “race for plastics”, and has recently developed Coal-to-Olefins technology to transform coal into ethylene and propylene. China is currently the world’s largest manufacturer of propylene—it’s estimated that by 2025, the annual production growth will reach 6.9%, compared to the current 2.3% and 4.2% in the United States and the Middle East, respectively.
A political commentator cited in the report notes that China is not harboring ambitions to become a plastic empire, despite their plan to inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the aforementioned technologies. Rather, China is looking for new ways to put its abundant endowment of coal reserves to good use and, more importantly, ensure labor stability. Coal mining simultaneously supports the livelihoods of poverty-afflicted coal regions, and puts rice on the tables of plastic manufacturing employees.
The United States, China, and the Middle East are all fighting for supremacy in the plastic market—and are even dragging INEOS, the reigning giant in Europe, into the race, as it invests in propylene facilities in Belgium. At the moment, approximately 4 to 8% of petroleum products are manufactured into plastic—this percentage is expected to jump to 20% by 2050, further increasing the petroleum industry’s reliance on plastic in the coming years.
As plastic manufacturing giants continue to churn out cheaper plastics, thickening the layer of short-lived plastics coating our planet, it is not too far-fetched to predict that this will have a disastrous effect on future animals. As for the future of humans, I’ll leave that for you to decide.
I wrote this piece (and another piece on short-lived plastics) to address the influx of information about the prevalence of plastics in our society—from microplastics, plastic bottles, straws, and single-use cutlery. I wanted to dig deeply into this issue and consider it from a more macro perspective. While reducing our plastic straw consumption is definitely a step in the right direction, it is merely skimming the surface of a much deeper issue. If we really want to make a change, there are two places we can start.
First: producer responsibility. Hong Kong, for example, is demanding beverage giants like Coca-Cola and Watsons to take the lead in reducing plastic consumption and recycling plastic bottles, urging supermarkets like ParknShop and City’Super to reduce their packaging, and requiring restaurant chains like Maxim’s and McDonalds to cut down on plastic use.
Second: understand how the petroleum industry and chemical engineering industries are influencing the “plastic war”. Although we may not all be directly associated with these industries, it is our responsibility as global citizens to remain informed. At the very least, we can all avoid buying stocks or otherwise investing in these companies.
This article may come across as pessimistic, but we cannot continue turning a blind eye to the problem—or else nothing will change. But there are certainly positive changes afoot. The European Union, England, and Taiwan, for example, have all implemented progressive plastic reduction policies in recent years, and many companies are voluntarily creating their own plastic reduction plans—something that would have been completely unimaginable in even recent history.
Will our ‘planet’ overcome ‘plastic'? In the end, the decision is up to us.
This article was produced by The Green Earth and first published on Mingpao on 29th July 2018.
類似的能源諮詢，在全德各地還有將近800個，背後由「德國消費者組織聯會」（Federation of German Consumer Organization, 簡稱VZBV）支持，提供超過500名能源專家的諮詢服務，已有超過40年歷史。根據聯邦經濟及出口管制署（BAFA）調查，光是2015年，VZBV就服務了10萬民眾，創造約30億度的省電績效。
德國的房屋自有率不到5成，多數人都靠租房過活，所以很多房客不希望房東進行翻修，怕一旦建築節能績效提升了，房租也要跟著漲，這種現象被稱為「房東與房客的困境」。「因德國法律允許房東將翻修費的11％反映到房租上，曾有房東故意進行豪華改建，藉此壓迫房客搬走。這問題不解決的話，會造成社會問題！」聯邦國會議員明杜普（ Klaus Mindrup）憂心忡忡地說。
Nem nem 在阿美族語代表從地底冒出來的水，也就是湧泉的意思。他還是小學生時，家裡種田，插秧割稻非常辛苦，小孩能幫家人做的事情，就是用竹筒到田邊裂隙處裝水，他還記得裝著水的竹筒重量，揹著竹筒走在看似漫長的田埂上，這些辛苦都在大人收到挑來的水，發出的那一聲whoy的歡呼聲中遁形，那種愉悅的心情，化成岩壁的上的湧泉之花。
無論是日本藝術家森山泰地（Taichi Moriyama）的《時空焦距／Focus of time and space》，以光影移動述說時間與空間的交集、舒米如妮的《酒伴》，凝聚部落力量、王秀茹《O Pangcah kako我是阿美族》帶著兒童一起創作、蔡影澂《豐收──精靈（精神）的重返》妝點海岸夜景或鬼島三老鼠《眼淚搏擊：Cepo’ Pakelang 2018》，都將帶給觀看者豐富的視覺、心靈體會。明年3月底前，值得來細細品味。
森山泰地（Taichi Moriyama）的《時空焦距／Focus of time and space》位於新社部落海階，隨著光影呈現濕地的不同形象。
