In my healing journey and learning to attain the breath awareness, I become aware of the reality that all the creatures of the world are breathing the same breath. Take action, here and now. From my physical being to the every corner of this out of balance's planet.
再生能源裝設率發展到這樣的停滯不前，就算發電成本持平不降，都是非比尋常的情形。況且成本當然會變動，尤其是風能與太陽能。太陽能發電成本已在過去五年下跌約七成。風能設施原本就比太陽能便宜，所以數字沒那麼驚人，但根據國際能源總署（International Energy Agency, IEA）的報告，光去年一年內風能成本就降低了一成。
By Richard Black, ECIU Director, at UN climate summit (COP23) in Bonn, Germany
At the Paris summit two years ago, governments made two separate promises on curbing the extent of climate change.
In one, they pledged to keep global warming since pre-industrial times ‘well below' 2 degrees Celsius, and to aim for 1.5ºC.
UN climate talks are this year taking place in Bonn, Germany. Image: BUND Bundeswerband
In the other, they put forward national plans on curbing carbon emissions that take us to a very different world – with global warming of around 3ºC by the end of the century.
That's why phrases such as ‘bend the curve' and ‘ramp up the ambition' are heard so often in the corridors and coffee bars of the UN convention centre here in Bonn.
The prevailing theory is – and it's a pretty obvious one – that many governments aren't yet convinced that they can cut emissions on the scale needed to usher in that ‘well below 2ºC' world without inflicting substantial pain on their economies. They like the vision, but not yet the pathway needed to get there.
But two recent pieces of research suggests there's another answer that may be just as important: they haven't looked hard enough at what's happening in their own countries, at what they've promised in other fora, or at what's possible.
Good knight IRENA
One comes from IRENA, the International Renewable Energy Agency.
Unsurprisingly, plans for a big rollout of renewable energy form a centrepiece of many countries' pledges into the Paris Agreement, which are known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
Here's the headline figure. Totting up the renewable energy rollout plans contained in the NDCs adds up to a projected increase in renewable energy capacity of 3.6% per year between 2015 and 2030.
Sounds ambitious? Well – not when the annual growth rate seen 2010-2015 was 8.1%.
Even if prices were constant it would be extraordinary to see the deployment rate grinding to a halt like this – and of course, prices aren't constant, certainly not for wind and solar. Solar prices have fallen by about 70% in the last five years. The figure for wind is less spectacular as it was already cheaper than solar – but the International Energy Agency reports a price drop of 10% over the last year.
And, as you'd expect, that same IEA report showed that the installation rate of renewables is increased, by 8% in a year, rather than decreasing.
That suggests that overall, the NDCs vastly underestimate the amount of renewable energy capacity that will be installed over the years to 2030.
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) reviewed country's pledges under the Paris climate agreement. Image: IRENA
IRENA also found that some countries are forecasting less ambition in their NDCs than they are in their national development plans.
Across Africa, NDCs project an expansion of 40 gigawatts (GW) in renewable capacity by 2030. But national development plans show Africa can expect 110 GW at least.
So, simply by reflecting their national plans more accurately in their NDCs, many countries would be able to forecast more ambitious emission curbs than they have yet put forward. And the ambition would grow still further if countries reflected what's economically likely.
Eau naturale
The second bit of research comes in the field that's becoming known as ‘natural climate solutions'. Here, the basic idea is to keep land in, or return it to, a condition in which it absorbs and stores carbon. Which in some cases means attaining as natural a state as possible, and in others means using land in ways that retain carbon, for example doing ‘minimum till' farming rather than deep ploughing.
The Nature Conservancy's online tool examines ‘natural climate solutions'. Image: The Nature Conservancy
There are obvious trade-offs here with other demands for land on an increasingly crowded planet, but seeing as many of these approaches bring benefits for wildlife or people if they're done well, there are obvious attractions too.
A couple of months back we saw a major scientific paper totting up the potential contribution of natural climate solutions to achieving the Paris climate target. The conclusion: they can get us about one-third of the way there at reasonable cost.
Now, The Nature Conservancy, the US-based conservation charity which led that scientific paper, has released a cool online tool that allows you to see, for every country in the world, what potential exists for meeting NDC targets through these ‘natural solutions'.
For some, it's pretty big: Indonesia can achieve more than its entire NDC pledge through cost-effective natural solutions alone.
Now, such a tool can only be as good as the data going into it. And one suspects that the numbers in and therefore the conclusions out are going to change over time.
Nevertheless, it illustrates that some countries may be able to increase their NDC pledges without too much bother – although in some cases (Indonesia still being a good example) they're likely to need the financial support they've been promised since 2009 in order to realise the full potential.
And at home?
Even countries such as the UK, which are more sophisticated than most in their climate change plans, may be under-estimating the potential of both natural climate solutions and renewables to cut emissions.
The Nature Conservancy's tool estimates that afforestation and other land-use changes could bring about one-sixth of the emission cut pledged in our NDC (which, just to be clear, is currently the EU's NDC as the bloc made a joint pledge). It's not clear – genuinely not clear from published plans, I'm not having a dig – whether the government has factored this in or not.
Meanwhile the latest analysis from Bloomberg New Energy Finance reckons that renewables could provide more than half our electricity by 2026. By contrast, the government thinks [pdf link] that a decade after that, renewables will still be chugging along at under half.
Now, all of this doesn't mean that if countries re-calculate their NDCs thoroughly, we'll magically be on target for the 'well below 2ºC' world of the Paris Agreement. Almost certainly that's not the case.
But it does suggest there's more potential there than many governments realise, in these two areas and maybe in others, to become bolder – and so take us closer to the world they said in Paris that they want.
鹽沼公園是斯洛維尼亞境內最大的沼澤濕地，斯洛維尼亞政府於1992年加入國際拉姆薩（ Rammsa ）濕地公約，並於隔年將此鹽沼濕地劃定為自然公園，之後受到歐盟Natura 2000註3認可其生態價值以及保育作為，成為網絡中的一員。自2000年起，鹽沼公園由斯洛維尼亞的食鹽生產有限公司註4（ SOLINE Pridelavasoli d. o. o. ）負責營運，在Natura2000 的同意並支持下，鹽沼公園恢復了局部的鹽業生產。鹽沼公園面積總共650公頃， 位於喬爾內加水道（ Kanal Sv. Jerneja ） 和卓拉貢加河（ Dragonja River ）之間。園區內除鹽田外，還有鹽業博物館、鹽工工寮和鹽車軌道等各種建物與設施散落其中，其中552公頃是水域，98公頃是陸域，中間由德爾尼卡水道（ Drnica Channel ）分隔成南北兩區：北側的萊拉（ Lera ）以及南側的芳唐尼格（ Fontanigge ）。芳唐尼格區是主要的保育區，鹽業博物館即位於此區，由鹽工宿舍改建而成。此區不能新增任何建物與設施，也不能使用任何車輛與船艇，更不能從事任何運動類的遊憩活動，除了博物館的參訪之外，嚴禁各類經濟開發活動，以期待能為水鳥等野生動物創造良好的棲地環境。食鹽的生產則於萊拉區進行，園區的行政管理以及遊客中心都位於此區，完全人工的生產方式，以及低度的生產規模，使得生產過程對水鳥棲息的干擾降到最低。
鹽沼公園景觀，木造房子為鹽工休息工寮。攝影：張正揚。
鹽沼公園的鹽產以皮朗克海鹽（ Piranske Soline ）之名在市場銷售。2005年，鹽產獲得斯洛維尼亞國家品管認證，其中的鹽之花（ fleur de sel ），只能在每年的6到9月，於日照強烈和無風無雨的天候下，採集漂浮於鹽水表面的結晶顆粒製成，每50平方公尺產量不到500公克，是鹽中極品。
國際工會聯合會秘書長布羅 （Sharan Burrow） 認為，公正轉型是讓人們對結構性轉變建立信心的第一步。在國際工會聯合會與夥伴的努力之下，2015 年聯合國永續發展目標（SDGs） 與《巴黎協定》皆明文置入公正轉型的精神或文字。同年聯合國國際勞工組織 （ILO） 也出版轉公正轉型的指導原則，強調必須確保勞工有組織和談判的權利；基於勞資雙方或與政府三方社會對話的基礎上進行協商；以及提供勞工醫療和收入的安全保障。（參考資訊：公正轉型中心報告〈Just Transition: A Report for the OECD〉）
加拿大魁北克勞工聯合會 （Quebec Federation of Labor） 成員宏杜 （Patrick Rondeau） 在會中分享與加拿大綠色和平開始的「秘密戀愛關係」。約自四年前，雙方開始一系列的合作論壇，工會團體以工作和經濟議題挑戰綠色和平，綠色和平則回敬氣候正義問題要工會思考，藉此尋找魁北克能源轉型的共識。現在，不僅科學論述較強的綠色和平成了他們諮詢的對象，他們也引薦綠色和平給魁北克勞工退休基金，成功說服基金撤銷對煤炭產業的投資。他們也反過來督促綠色和平從「反對化石燃料」的運動論述，進階到「提出另類方案」的論述層次，給勞工朋友一個交代。
除此之外，挪威地球之友 （Friends of the Earth） 與挪威總工會 （Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions） 等公民團體也合作推出「Bridge to the Future」系列活動，一起出版文宣，藉機了解彼此的語言和界線，共同探討公正轉型與綠色工作的意義。西班牙綠色和平也與國內工會聯手撰寫煤炭轉型報告，結合兩股運動能量督促西班牙政府推動公正轉型。其他勞工與環境團體代表的經驗則顯示，當政府對於轉型過程中社會底層所付出的代價反應遲緩，來自民間的合作力量便顯得益發重要。
「Let TAIWAN Help, Leave No One Behind.」台灣團在萊茵河上的遊艇掛上布條，再三強調台灣貿易量大，在全球對抗氣候變遷的陣營中不該缺席。回到台灣自身該有的作為，李應元強調，日前已經公布了第一期溫室氣體階段管制目標，與溫室氣體減量推動方案及溫室氣體排放管制行動方案的草案，設定了2020年比2005年的基準減量2％，2025年減量10％、2030年減量20％，逐步朝向2050年50％。
